Armenia — Is a New War Looming?

How the West Wants to Turn a Small Christian Country into a Second Front Against Russia — and What Is at Stake

Armenia is a small country — but a country of enormous geostrategic importance. And this country is caught in a tension that could lead to a new war.

On June 7, 2026, Armenia will elect a new parliament. This election is a defining choice: will Armenia continue on the path toward association with the European Union — or will it remain in the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia? The answer to this question determines not only the fate of just under three million people in Armenia, but the geopolitical architecture of the entire South Caucasus.

Ashot Grigorian

I spoke about this with Ashot Grigorian: he is an Armenian businessman, a cultural mediator, a man who speaks six languages and lives primarily in Bratislava. He is President of the EU-Asia Business Finance Center Holding, Co-President of the Pan-European Center for Political and Economic Analysis and Prognosis, President of the Forum of Armenian Associations of Europe, and Chairman of the Armenian community in Slovakia.

A Country with 3,000 Years of History — and Shrinking Borders

Armenia is located in the South Caucasus and looks back on a millennia-old history. The Armenian settlement area once covered around 300,000 square kilometres. Today it is barely 30,000 — a fraction of historical Western and Eastern Armenia. Western Armenia fell to Turkey, Eastern Armenia to the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union. With the latter’s dissolution in 1991, the current independent state emerged.

Grigorian emphasises the special historical significance: in the year 301, Armenia became the first country in the world to declare Christianity the state religion. This Christian identity continues to shape the country’s self-understanding — and its geopolitical logic. For all of its neighbours are Muslim: Turkey to the west, Azerbaijan to the east, Iran to the south.

Only with Iran, Grigorian explicitly stresses, has Armenia historically maintained comparatively few conflicts. Tehran is regarded as a strategic partner — alongside Moscow. “This partnership is not ideological, but existential,” Grigorian explains. Without these allies, Armenia would be completely landlocked.

The Genocide and Its Long Shadow

In 1915, approximately one and a half million Armenians were murdered in the Ottoman Empire. A genocide whose recognition remains politically contested to this day. Turkey continues to reject acknowledgement; Azerbaijan stands firmly by its side.

That it is precisely Great Britain, the EU and the USA who are now courting influence in the South Caucasus is explained by Grigorian through a long history of Western interests in the region — since the 18th century, and particularly pronounced at the beginning of the 20th century, when England maintained close relations with Azerbaijan, which at the time possessed significant oil reserves.

The “Trump Corridor”: Washington Discovers Armenia

Today, the USA under Donald Trump is pursuing new strategic ambitions in the South Caucasus. Grigorian reports that Washington is interested in a transit corridor through Armenia — a connection route between West and East that would be of enormous importance for trade and logistics. This so-called “Trump Corridor,” officially also known as the “Middle Corridor,” would affect China, Europe, and Russia alike.

As a sign of growing American interest, Grigorian points to the conspicuously frequent visits of high-ranking US representatives: first Vice President J.D. Vance travelled to Armenia in February, then Secretary of State Marco Rubio followed — but only for a few hours, with a hurried stopover at Yerevan airport and a quick signature on an agreement with the Armenian Foreign Minister. The pace is telling: Washington is in a hurry.

Behind the geopolitical interest, according to Grigorian’s assessment, lies an anti-Iranian component as well. Washington and above all Israel, which has maintained close military relations with Azerbaijan for years, have an interest in using the South Caucasus as a lever against Tehran.

“Israel operates military bases through Azerbaijani territory — very strongly militarily. Nobody in Europe talks about this, not even in Germany.”

At the same time, Grigorian says, the United States wishes to establish a NATO base in Armenia — where Russian Military Base 102 has been stationed in Gyumri for over 30 years: equipped with S-300 and S-400 systems, combat aircraft, and around 6,000 professional soldiers. The stationing agreement runs until approximately 2040. Which government would terminate it is the decisive question.

NATO Reaches Toward the Caspian Sea

The most far-reaching strategic goal of the West described by Grigorian goes well beyond Armenia. With the Trump Corridor — the agreement that Armenia has now signed — a connection is being laid through South Caucasian territory that effectively interrupts the Russian North-South corridor. At the same time, the Chinese New Silk Road is severed at a neuralgic point.

Grigorian sees in this an attempt to create, via Turkey and Azerbaijan, a geopolitical axis connecting all Turkic-speaking countries: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan — and reaching through Russian territory into Siberia and Central Asia. A trans-Eurasian wedge intended to split Russia from south to north.

“Not just business. Yes, that matters for business. But for Armenia: after one year, Armenia will no longer exist. For Russia, perhaps after five years.”

And then there is the drone scenario. Grigorian outlines a scenario barely discussed in Western media: once the corridor is established and NATO is present at the Caspian Sea, thousands of maritime drones could penetrate through the Caspian Sea, the Volga and other rivers into the Russian interior. The goal would not merely be a military encirclement of Russia — but the destruction of critical infrastructure deep within the country. Shipyards, energy installations, rivers as transport routes.

Ashot Grigorian

“After half a year, after one year, we would have to militarily subordinate ourselves to the West. And that is a major problem for Russia. That is extremely dangerous for Russia.”

For Russia, Iran and China, this would be a red line. For Armenia itself, it would mean destruction. For whoever believes Armenia could survive under Western protection while sacrificing its neighbourly relations with Russia and Iran is, in Grigorian’s firm conviction, fundamentally mistaken.

Also part of this picture is Erdogan’s strategy. Grigorian recalls that Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had already formulated the concept of a “new Ottoman Empire” 15 years ago. Erdogan is a great friend of Putin, Trump, Starmer and Merz — but ultimately a “great cheat” who plays everyone against each other. Europe knows this, but as long as Erdogan is needed as a lever against Russia, people look the other way.

Pashinyan: The Premier Who Is Leading Armenia into a Trap

The domestic problem has a name: Nikol Pashinyan. He came to power in 2018 through a popular movement — promoted, as Grigorian explains, by Western-financed NGOs and foundations that worked specifically against Russian influence in Armenia. Since Donald Trump took office, this work has been significantly scaled back; Grigorian is personally aware of five to six such groups by name.

Grigorian’s criticism of Pashinyan is fundamental: no university degree, a weak journalist, politically inexperienced. Worse still: after the lost Karabakh war of 2020 and the final loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, Pashinyan shifted responsibility onto Russia — even though the CSTO protection obligation did not extend to Nagorno-Karabakh, and even though the Minsk Group with Armenian-Azerbaijani participation had worked for years on a negotiated solution.

Illustrative Image

Particularly explosive is an allegation that Grigorian bases on sources in Armenian intelligence circles: just a few months after taking office, Pashinyan allegedly made an offer at a meeting with Azerbaijani President Aliyev — Nagorno-Karabakh in exchange for five billion dollars. Lukashenko and the then Armenian President Sarkissian are said to have followed the conversation through intercepted channels. Aliyev is said to have declined. Whether this is true cannot currently be verified.

What can be verified: after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan had four bishops of the Armenian Apostolic Church imprisoned — including the billionaire and widely known Samvel Karapetyan, who supported the opposition. Against this backdrop, a broad opposition movement has formed: former President Robert Kocharyan, businessman Gagik Tsarukyan and other parties have joined forces and are polling higher than Pashinyan’s party.

The Election on June 7: A Fateful Day for Armenia

At the time of our conversation, Armenia is on the eve of parliamentary elections — on June 7, 2026. And Grigorian fears electoral fraud — as in 2021. The first manipulation mechanism is structural in nature: Armenians abroad cannot vote at Armenian embassies, but must travel to Armenia especially for that purpose.

Of the estimated three million Armenians in Russia — who in Grigorian’s assessment are predominantly opposition-minded — only a few tens of thousands can cast their votes. 600,000 of them hold an Armenian passport, but Pashinyan refuses overseas voting. A further 100,000 to 200,000 Armenians live in Europe — they too remain without a voice.

The second mechanism: according to Grigorian, Pashinyan has in the past manipulated travel documents for his own interests — meaning: falsified electoral rolls. Whether this will again be possible is doubtful, as considerably more observers are now watchful.

“If there is fraud on June 7 — and I think there will be — then on June 8 everyone will take to the streets. All people are in a highly emotional state.”

Around 20 to 30 EU election observers are expected. Grigorian considers their influence limited. At a symposium in Bratislava at the end of May, which he himself organised, 90 percent of the assembled experts reached an agreed conclusion: EU membership for Armenia within the next ten to twenty years is unrealistic. Grigorian points to the example of Slovakia, which had been working toward accession since the late 1980s and was only admitted in 2004.

The Armenian Diaspora: Russia’s Silent Pawn

One aspect almost entirely absent from Western reports on Armenia is the economic reality. Around 80 percent of Armenian exports go toward Russia and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Zone. Russian gas costs Armenia $147.50 per thousand cubic metres — in Europe it is over $500. The Armenian nuclear power plant is operated with Russian assistance. Large factories and enterprises are historically intertwined with the Russian economy.

Then there is the diaspora: the three million Armenians in Russia are not an abstract demographic figure — they are the country’s most important source of money. Every month they send remittances to Armenia that feed families, pay rents, and keep businesses alive. This dependency is not coerced: it has grown historically and is an important economic factor in the poor country.

Armenian cognac to Western Europe? “Negligible amounts,” Grigorian says dryly, “compared to what goes to Moscow. We would have no chance in the EU.” The prospect of visa-free travel in Europe may sound alluring — but it cannot replace trade with Russia.

That part of the population is nonetheless receptive to the pro-EU course has, according to Grigorian, less to do with economic reason than with emotional longing: the freedom to travel through Europe without a visa, the possibility of doing business on European markets. This hope is real. But it is not a foundation for economic recovery and political reform.

EU Membership: Illusion as Instrument

Why does Pashinyan nonetheless pursue the EU course? Grigorian’s answer is sobering: not for Armenia, but for himself. He is personally well connected with Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Keir Starmer. These European leaders exert pressure — and Trump adds to it. The motive is the same in every case: organising a second front against Russia.

On May 5, Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron travelled to Yerevan to press Pashinyan to remain on the EU course. Promises were made: visa-free access for Armenians in the EU, investments, symbolic solidarity. What cannot be promised: protection. The EU has no obligation to defend Armenia, possesses no troops in the South Caucasus, has no strategic depth in the region.

Patrik Baab

In conversation with Patrik Baab, Ashot Grigorian recalls the example of Georgia: at the NATO meeting in Bucharest in 2008, Georgia was invited to NATO membership — but without a firm date. Georgian troops then attacked Russian peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia. The Russian army repelled the attack and advanced to Tbilisi. The West left Georgia alone in that war. Today Georgians are largely glad that Prime Minister Kobakhidze’s government suspended EU accession negotiations until 2028 and rejected EU financial assistance. Armenia too, Grigorian warns, faces the threat of armed conflict if it allows the West to turn it into a second front against Russia.

Russia, Iran, China: Why All Three Are at Stake

Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov and State Duma Chairman Volodin have spoken in unison: Armenia has been a partner of Russia for 250 years. What is good for Armenia is also good for Russia. Grigorian interprets these signals not as a threat, but as a sincere warning.

For Iran, an American military presence in the South Caucasus would be an existential threat. With Israeli military bases in Azerbaijan to the east and a NATO presence in Armenia to the north, Tehran would be enclosed on two sides. Grigorian considers this the end of Iran as a regional power.

For China, an interruption of trade routes through Armenia would mean the loss of a central section of the New Silk Road. Beijing has a fundamental interest in Armenia remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union.

In this triangle of Russia, Iran and China, Armenia is, as Grigorian sees it, not a player — it is a pawn. A pawn that could shatter with one wrong political move.

An Armenian with a European Heart

What distinguishes Grigorian from a mere geopolitical analyst is his personal grounding. He is European — culturally, intellectually. Johann Sebastian Bach is for him the foremost figure of culture, not only in Germany but in the world. He values European civilisation sincerely.

And it is precisely for that reason that he advocates for bridges rather than fronts. Armenia can — and should — mediate between Russia and Europe. The Russian mentality is in large parts European: philosophy, language, way of thinking. The conflict between West and East is not a clash of civilisations, but a political construct being played out on the backs of small peoples.

For ten years, Grigorian has been President of the Forum of Armenian Associations of Europe. Two years ago he organised in Bratislava the first of his peace symposia. The motto: Bratislava as a capital of dialogue.

“We Armenians are Europeans and we are absolute friends of Russia. There is only one way to prevent a Third World War: Europe must talk with Russia. And we Armenians can help with that.”

Ashot Grigorian, the cosmopolitan Armenian businessman: Armenia must be a bridge between the European Union and Russia — but stands in danger of becoming a buffer in a new Western front against Russia. That is why what is at stake in the elections of June 7, 2026 is not only the fate of Armenia, but also of Europe and the Caucasus.